Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Several Stormy Periods Coming...

A fast WSW upper flow is causing me to have little confidence in model guidance for the next 5-7 days. The models do OK with northern latitude energy, but have difficulty with disturbances in the southern (sub-tropical) jet stream. NWS is using words like "STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL..." for Friday's storms as a warm front lifts northward from the Gulf. What do I see? I see models flip flopping with each run giving me little confidence on the timing of rain events. With such strong winds aloft forecast for Friday, we could see some strong storms, but I feel the severe stuff will again be north of Lake P. Hopefully most of the rain will end before 3 PM so the evening parades & Jefferson's Family Gras will go off mostly dry? A cold front pushes thru Sat. AM with some showers, but most of Saturday should turn out dry. Sunday is another forecasting problem. I think it is pure folly to let on that we have much skill in forecasting that far out with such an upper air pattern. I'll try again tomorrow.

4 comments:

storm said...

Bob, I see the problems you and other forecasters are facing with the models. I do agree that most of the energy stays to our north. Not sure about Saturday morning just yet.

Dawn said...

Bob this is one of the Officers from Cleopatra and we are trying to make a decision about riding tomorrow night. I know you are really busy but it would be a great help if you could let me know.

Aaron said...

WELL THIS MORNING ON THE FOX8 NEWS REPLY METEORLOGIST KIM VAUGHN SAID SHE WAS GOING WITH VIPER RADAR HAS VIPER RADAR CHANGE SINCE THE MORNING NEWS SHOW.

Bourbon St. Blues said...

Bob you had me laughing last night when you came on the air around 9:30 Thursday night...and you were talking about next weekends forecast and gave your PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!! line....loved it.

Lets hope you can keep the rain away from most of the parades this weekend....its not looking the best!!

Its a shame we were such in a cold dry weather pattern for December and January and now that we have parades, its changed. Oh how I hate that SW flow.

Hail Caesar!!