Friday, February 20, 2009

This is MY Forecast...

Since I have most Fridays off, I get an opportunity to watch all channels. I find it amusing to hear..."this is MY Forecast" and then go to the National Weather Service's web site and find the SAME forecast. Now I'm not opposed to using NWS data, but give credit to where it's from. To say MY FORECAST is calling for 40% chance of rain and then find the SAME info from the NWS is like stealing. Go to the NOAA site that produces 7 day temp. forecasts and you'll see the same thing on almost everybody's 7 day forecast. Why does that "bug" me? Because it seems everyone is married to model data and is afraid to vary from it for fear of being wrong.

Take this coming weekend. Model data is calling for some showers late Sat. PM into early Sunday. I indicated as early as last Tuesday (Krewe of Endymion forecast) that Saturday's cold front would come thru dry. (Remember the last front had showers approach us and move as close as the Northshore before fizzling before reaching the Southshore.) This next front I believe will do the same. Moisture is limited, the upper energy is far to our north, the axis of the upper trough pulls to our east and it's a fast mover. All point to the front coming thru us with rain chances so low so as not to include them in MY forecast, which I didn't last night. Tonight eveyone is call for 20-40% chance for rain. Why? Because that's what the model data is calling for. I grew up outside Chicago back in the '60s with John Coleman & Harry Volkman challenging each other & the NWS forecast. Now days, no one seems able to "stick their neck out" and go against NWS & the models. After seeing tonight's new model runs, I'm staying with my forecast issued on Tuesday...Saturday evening will see NO RAIN for Endymion. The difference here versus those crazy 50-100 year "predictions" regarding Global Warming is simple. You'll know within 24 hours if MY FORECAST verified. Hail Endymion!

9 comments:

Bourbon St. Blues said...

We all loved Nash Roberts. I always found it kind of odd that Carl Arrondo would give his forcast and then they would go to Nash for his prediction....almost like how were we to believe Carl computer model or NWS forecast, when we got Nash???

Seems Nash told us what he thought, right or wrong and Carl was going off of the NWS and all their computer models...Nash was old school and used his gut feelings to tell us his forecast.

I was this close to not leaving for Gustav because of what Bob was forecasting... the way the Northeast quadrant was falling apart that Sunday morning, I just listened to Bob's gut instinct..I didnt think it was going to be that major of a storm for us, based on what he thought....I also like the way Bob used the computer graphics to tell him what he thought about Gustav....

What aren't we still in winter and Carnival season??? Hail Endymion...Throw me something Mister...

Ride, ride, ride, let it ride!

Caveman said...

"After seeing tonight's new model runs, I'm staying with my forecast issued on Tuesday...Saturday evening will see NO RAIN for Endymion." sounds like someone is also using computer model data? From what I understand the NWS use of computer models is just one of may tools used in their forecast which are usually pretty much accurate. I like their forecasts since they don't have TV ratings to influence judgement. Believe they have a slight chance of rain which is just that a slight chance of rain.

Caveman said...

But Bob does explain things much better...

Catfish said...

I think what Bob was saying is he uses models, expierence, gut feelings, VIPIR, etc to compile his forcast,then explains why. He doesn't just show the NWS model on TV and say "This is my forcast".

Thats why I watch Bob, to get the why explained to me, as well as why a certain model is "right" or "wrong" based on his expierence. I can look at any weather website and see a model.

Jen said...

just looked at the radar...

looks like rain is heading our way.

Caveman said...

Yep.... raining cats and dogs!!! Nothing like watching a parade in the rain without umbrella because your weather man said not to worry no rain for us tonight... not me got mine!

Caveman said...

Looks like the other stations used NWS forecasts because that is what they felt was going to occur and it did. Everyone uses some type of computer model such as Bob relying on VIPIR for Sat forecast and VIPIR was wrong.

Jen said...

Oh the irony!

Sure enough we had a nice soaker here last night. We'll have to be more careful when choosing which forecast we rant about!

ONLYREAL said...

Caveman,

This blog is NOT for ridiculing Bob. The weather is very hard to forecast especially hour by hour. Infact I do remember him mentioning some rain after Endimion on the air. Which was correct, or for atleast where I was because it started raining after I started heading home.