Wednesday, July 29, 2009

New Hurricane Predictions...LOWER NUMBERS !

Reading Dr. Master's (WeatherUnderground) blog today, he indicated that 2 new hurricane seasonal forecasts just out lower the total number of named storms to 6 & 8. Wow, that's way less than predicted in early June. Dr. Gray's team will be out with their update on August 4th and I'll be shocked if they don't lower their numbers too. Should we be encouraged? Sure, but don't get too excited. Remember Hurricane Andrew didn't form until August 16, 1992 and the total number of storms that year were only 6...but Andrew did hit Louisiana as a Cat. 3 near Morgan City. The heart of the season begins Saturday and the longer we go without activity, the closer we get to those Fall cold fronts.

The upper air pattern has shifted back to a more west to east flow and that will keep the main energy far to our north on Thursday. The result should be another day like today of below normal (20-30%) shower activity and above normal (92-96) temperatures. Beware of the heat index topping 105-110+ placing us in the danger category. Stay hydrated if working/exercising outdoors.


Bourbon St. Blues said...

Why is it that Dr. Gray and others change their forecast once they give it? Is it easy to change your forecast since the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf have been so quiet these past two months to now say we won't get as many storms this season? Has the global pattern changed that much since these predictions were originally made?

While I am not trying to downplay Dr. Grays' research and predictions, Lord knows he has put in his time studying Hurricanes and weather, but would he be more respected if he made the prediction and stuck with it? To me its okay to be off by a few storms, then to say at the end of November that Dr. Gray nailed his predictions...but only after he changed it??

I guess to compare my case in point here, is with Hurricane Georges. I have high regards for Nash Roberts, when he came on people listened. But one of the first forecasts he made with George was that the storm was going to head north turn right into Florida and head out into the Atlantic. Only to get accolades from that other TV station when he nailed where the center hit in Mississippi. Okay so he was wrong...but he still has my respect...

I am glad that amount of storms have been decreased. I always say the first day of summer is the first day toward the last day of summer. I would be great if we went this season without a named storm..I know wishful thinking..

I did see some impressive lightning strikes while heading back across the Causeway today...One strike I found was far away from the thunderstorm we were having. The main thunderstorm was on the west side of the Causeway and this came from an area where there were very little clouds at all and was due south of me. And my oh my it lined up almost perfectly with the Causeway Bridge. Are lightning strike common away from the thunderstorm like that??

Woohoo Saints training camp is here??? Black n Gold...Superbowl!

ONLYREAL said...
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ONLYREAL said...

Not only lower numbers but we look to remain rather safe for the next 2 weeks. NCEP Ensembles suggest that a nice trough is going to develop over the Eastern US and The Deep Layered ridge will remain parked over New Mexico/Western Texas thus putting under a northerly flow aloft. This pattern would make any storms in the Atlantic re curve before getting in the Gulf, and if a storm were to form in the Gulf it would be deflected away from us. If we can get just get this pattern to stick for another 2 and a Half Month's we should be okay this season. But the pattern is subject to change at anytime so we still need to keep a look out as we head into the heart of the season.