Thursday, August 27, 2009

Erika Forming in Atlantic?

With most folks focused on T.S. Storm Danny struggling for his life off the east coast of Fl. tonight, not much attention has been given to a strong wave way out in the Atlantic. It appears this distrubance is becoming better organized and could be either TD 5 or T.S. Erika on Friday. It is at a much lower latitude than Bill or Danny, but computer model runs are indicating that the same pattern of east coast trough and displaced Bermuda High will allow this system to recurve north of the Leeward Islands and NOT get into the Caribbean Sea. Plenty of time to watch it. Just want you to know something is out there.

Danny so far has bee a dud and NHC continues to keep him heading northward off the east coast so he's not our concern. As mentioned, another east coast trough will bring down yet another August front. Timing will determine whether most of the rain comes overnight Saturday or during the day on Sunday. The drier, good feel air returns for much of next week. This front will again bring down record cold air to the Great lakes, New England and maybe parts of the SE. Even if Erika does develop, we (the Gulf) should be protected from her coming here.


ONLYREAL said...

94L is dealing with a little dry air and easterly shear this afternoon. This should slow down the rate of development for the tropical disturbance. I think at this rate of organization 94L would get classified sometime tomorrow afternoon or Sunday Morning when it gets around 40W-45W. But until 94L becomes a deeper system it will continue on a general westward track as it remains in a shallow steering layer, which leads me to believe that 94L will not gain much latitude over the next 24-48 hours.

ONLYREAL said...

If we get Erika before August ends we will have a total of 5 named storms in August. The last time there was a season with 5 named storm in August was in 2005.