NHC this evening upped the chances for development to 40% over the eastern Gulf. Wondering how that could be with a stalled upper low just off our coast providing 30-40 kts of SW windshear, one had to read the fine print..."tropical or sub-tropical cyclone..." A sub-tropical low is more like a fall/wintertime storm with usually less wind and rain. Regardless, NHC has the Hurricane Hunters on standby for a flight out Friday morning if warranted. Satellite loops tonight show no signs of T-Storms forming plus lots of SW wind shear. Best guess is nothing will form and the wave will head northward into the Fla. Panhandle Fri-Sat. bringing them much needed rainfall.
Our weather will depend on the movement, or lack of, the upper low off our coast. If it stays stalled, we won't see many storms on Friday. If it starts drifting westward, we will get on the wetter side of system increasing our rain chances for weekend. Stay tuned!
1 comment:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER FLORIDA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
Where do you get 40% from?
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