Tuesday, August 9, 2011

East Coast Troughs Keep Coming...

This unusual summer continues as computer models continue to predict more east coast troughs coming for the next 7-10 days. What that means is the Bermuda High is depressed well to the south giving us mostly WSW Sfc. winds. More importantly, it brings cold fronts that push off the East Coast setting up a weakness for any tropical system that might come off of Africa. There are 2 such waves moving off of Africa, but they have lots of dry air to overcome and any development will be slow to occur. I still believe the next tropical threat in the Gulf will come from one of these cold fronts pushing down into the Gulf with a spin up forming much like Alicia back in 1983. With the persistent upper ridge staying in place over Texas, anything that would form would likely be steered away from the northern Gulf and head towards S. TX/Upper Mexico. The MJO is currently not in a favorable phase across the Atlantic Basin so our quiet period may last for awhile. Stay tuned.

In the short term, below normal shower activity will result in above normal (95-100) temperatures. NWS likely to re-issue Excessive Heat Advisory/Warning.

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