Monday, August 15, 2011

Hurricane Frenzy Coming???

According to tropical expert Joe Bastardi, the next 2-4 weeks will see a "hurricane frenzy" that could have as many as 5-6 hurricanes striking the U.S. mainland. Why? According to Joe, the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation of upper air motion) will be in the favorable (rising air motion) mode beginning as early as this weekend. What does it mean for us? Hopefully everyone has their hurricane plan (to stay or leave) in place and you'll know what to do based on the track of the storm. I give you this alert not to scare you, but to prepare you to be ready in case a bad storm gets into the Gulf. At the moment, there is NOTHING we need to worry about since the persistent pattern of Central plains ridging with east coast troughing will last for the next 7-10 days protecting us. However, it's too soon to know how long that protection will last.

Regarding computer models...I have always said..."I want New Orleans to be the bulleye on the forecast track at 5 days out" as the forecast error is greater than 200 miles.(Gustav was the exception!) This morning's GFS run at 14 days out !!! had a storm in the central Gulf hitting land just to our west. Of course the bloggers went goofy calling for doom and gloom for us. Tonight's run still has a system coming our way, BUT it turns it EAST of Florida. Let's not get crazy over something that hasn't formed yet. Stayed tuned!

In the short term, enjoy the less humid air (mainly North Shore) as the muggies are coming back. Getting any kind of front down to us in August is a bonus. Let's hope the stronger (cooler)September fronts start coming early!

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

I hope we don't face evacuation this year, I love my home and so many good things are happening.

Caveman said...

Hurricane "Irene" has me worried...

Nashette said...

Oh No Bob! It figures that it has been so quiet up until now. I have 10 days till I cruise and now things will heat up in the tropics. Well, I should have known why those cruises are cheaper in late August and September, Hurricanes! :) Let's just hope things stay quiet until at least after Labor Day and I'm with Anonymous, I love my home and surely don't want to return from a cruise just to have to evacuate!

Kingd said...

HWRF developes 93L in the southern gulf as the first cane of the season.

Anonymous said...

Gotta love it...Nashette and another cruise...I think last year we were hearing similar stories. I say take your cruise, you can't live your life in fear or you will never do anything in life because you will always fear the worse.

Oddly enough I hadnt kept up with the news lately and realized I missed the F storm....must not have been much to it...and now we have a G storm I hear that will stay in the Atlantic..

Last I saw there wasnt much to Gert and keep on thinking what Bob says about how 20-30 years ago these would not be named storms...its all about stats...

Hopefully we will stay storm free this year as the brundt of the season is upon us...

Bourbon Street Blues

Nashette said...

Great to see you back on line BURBON STREET BLUES...and yes, I never learn..Booked another cruise at the end of August.... Saves money but causes many more worries... I try not to look at weather forecasts as the time gets near. Can't do anything about it...I know the cruise line will divert the cruise elsewhere if need be and that's ok with me, long as I cruise somewhere!

Franklin said...

Of course 20-30 yrs ago many storms named today would not have been simply because we can better see their strength. Did you have an Iphone or Ipad 20-30 yrs ago?

kitchy-koo said...

Joe Bastardi....Now there's a piece of work. Surprised he hasn't been laughed out of the scientific community yet. The guy is always wrong and is nothing more than a fear-pusher.

Chris said...

I agree about Bastardi. To make sure everyone was good and scared last year he said that 3-4 storms were going to track through the oil spill region. As if there wasn't enough to worry about.

I think he enjoys being a fear mongerer.

LLSO said...

Now, I am just a little bit worried. especially since we have been pretty lucky since The Big K besides Gutav. I sure hope you're wrong as I didn;t buy that generator I had planned and my finances are a bit off this year.I will "stay tuned" and hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
LL

Bob Breck said...

Kitchy-koo & Chris...You may be correct about Bastardi, however, his opinion is VERIFIABLE. We'll know in several weeks if he's on to something unlike the climate alarmists who issue "predictions" that won't happen for 50-100 years and we'll have no way to know(neither will they)if they were right or wrong. I think JB's reasoning regarding the MJO is valid so get ready for a wild 4-6 weeks of tropical activity.

Anonymous said...

He may be on to something with the MJO hypothesis, but his dire predictions of 5-6 storms hitting the US mainland constitute nothing more than fearmongering. He made similar predictions back in 2007, only to fall flat on his face.

Anonymous said...

It's one thing to predict that there might be a lot of storms. It's another to predict where landfall will be before the storm even forms. That would seem to be similar to the difference saying that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form and saying where exactly a tornado will form.

But the prediction doesn't become a fact then in making it Joe Bastardi has done a disservice to all weathercasters.

Chris said...

This article is now mentioned on the website: www.spaghettimodels.com/

I think monitoring storms and keeping a watchful eye out is good but I don't agree with many posters on sites like Weather Underground that want to turn the next wave into a monster storm and enjoy scaring and freaking people out.

I look at the GFS model but don't agree usually agree with with its forecast past maybe 4-5 days.

Nobody has really mentioned the ECHMF model ,which was right earlier this season in not developing Emily, has not been overly excited about the waves out there in its last couple of runs predicting through Aug. 26. But since that would not worry enough people it seems like that is not mentioned by many forecasters like Bastardi.

Anonymous said...

There is always a Hurricane Frenzy "just around the corner" with Joe Bastardi! Frequently wrong never in doubt is his mantra... He takes one piece of data and knits a whole flag with it.