Friday, August 19, 2011

Take a Deep Breath...

Wow, amazing how something that hasn't formed yet inspires such anxiety. C'mon, get a grip folks. I loved reading Dr. Masters comment regarding hurricane models at 7 days..."the forecast error is like 700 miles!" Yet we have Caveman telling us..."you heard it first from Caveman". Heard what? Guys, if you want to make comments, be specific and tell us why. Otherwise, you make youself look foolish.

Here's my take. We have a trpical wave well east of the islands that is showing some signs of becoming better organized. So what? It's still over a week away even if it came straight into the Gulf. Once NHC classifies this as a TD or TS, then we need to pay attention to the model forecast tracks. Until then, why bother as we don't have an initialization point. The persistent pattern this season is for these systems is to turn northward east of Florida. Models have been all over the place with this one, but as of tonight, it appears we will stay on the weak side of whatever forms. It will have a lot to overcome (shear,mountainous terrain, dry air) before it can become the season's first hurricane. Stay tuned!

In the short term, near record heat will continue with shower chances slim & none. better rain chances next week as the uppper ridge shifts back to the west coast.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Caveman will try to scare everyone again soon. You heard it here first!

Anonymous said...

"We have a trpical wave well..."

And you say Caveman looks foolish?

Anonymous said...

I think that Caveman person has been more accurate than you and he just guesses.

Anonymous said...

I think Caveman need to stop posting as Anonymous pretending he's got followers...LMAO!

Anonymous said...

I have and always will trust what Bob says! I don't know who caveman is or what he's said but there are a few other meteorologist wanna be's posting that we are right in the path of this storm. Calling it Katrinas Ghost! People that obviously have never been through what we went through during and after Katrina can easily scare us with all these projected paths and I do not think it cool. If all you have is a guess then why even worry with it? Bob you keep doing what you do! We really love and appreciate you and you knowledge of the weather systems! Your the best!!!.....Mandy in Picayune MS

Anonymous said...

It isn't right to be looking to frighten others but at the same time given the time of year and so on even if whatever-you-want-to-call-it is far away and only on the cusp of being named or perhaps not even quite at that point it's difficult not to feel a sense of concern.

There seems to be a doubt as to whether the weather features that have been in place serving either to guide storms away from the east coast and out to sea or as a barrier against storms in the gulf tracking northward toward the central Gulf area will remain in place and then on top of that the storm systems are now appearing and supposedly the conditions that would engender their strengthening are in place. Ergo, to say that there isn't anything to worry about would seem to be wrong, also.

The whole key question would seem to be whether there's actually going to be some kind of trough feature and that it would be strong enough that it would guide this storm to the east of the central Gulf or whether the ridge in the Atlantic building to the west would be the main feature.

What's your take on that, Bob?

Anonymous said...

There's a good looking cluster of storms out there just east of the leeward islands!

Anonymous said...

"message to the webmaster" you should try an ip ban on caveman, it might help,its not right for him to be trying to scare people that have been through, what we have been through as la and ms residents, thank you

Caveman said...

Gee whizz folks what did I say?

bayoubuckeye said...

Looks like Irene made a huge northern jog. Lets hope that means it is going to head east of the coastline. The GFDL also has shifted east.