Yea, yea, I see where every other day one of the long range models develops something off of Africa and moves it into the Gulf during the next 2 weeks. The next day the model doesn't have it. My suggestion? Enjoy each day we have no tropical troubles instead of wishing for something to start happening. We remain protected for the next 7-10 days, however, I still believe/feel the tropical threat in the Gulf will come from one of these weak cold fronts that the persistent east coast troughs keep bringing down to us. Such a front will stagger off the coast tonight and it's something that will bear watching this week.
NHC is determined to reach those high (16-19) numbers of storms NOAA predicted earlier as Gert has formed near Bermuda. Since technology allows us to see every swirl now, it makes comparisons to past years regarding the number of storms fairly useless. Bottom line...7 storms but ZERO hurricanes despite all this warm water around. I expect the last 10 days in August and the first 3 weeks in September to be much more active. A great prediction? Nah, just climatology. All that matters is location, not the total numbers.
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Folks need to understand those NHC numbers are not set in stone, they are simply a learning tool. They forecast a number from what if any weather patterns they are seeing and at the end of the season they go back and research what occured and why they had the numbers that did form etc. It's called research.
you said, "these weak cold fronts that the persistent east coast troughs keep bringing down to us. Such a front will stagger off the coast tonight and it's something that will bear watching this week." Why would a weak cold front matter? I thought cooler weather was a good thing. I am "weather" challenged! TY BOB!
Ok Bob!
I'm leaving on my annual cruise on August 27th back down to the Yucutan. We need to keep any systems clear of the gulf and carribean the last week of August, OK :)
Gotta feelin those long range gfs models are not on our side..look @ 330hr loop
Tracey...weak cold fronts are troughs of low pressure between 2 highs. Sometimes a swirl develops along that boundary (like Bret) and can develop into a tropical system.
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