Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Keep Your Umbrella Handy...

After last weekend's drenching rains, we really don't need more right now. However, another upper disturbance is sinking southward in Mississippi and will settle right over us for Thursday & Friday. This should enhance our daily shower chances with the potential to receive 2-4"+ over the next 2-3 days. A positive result will be temps mainly below 90 until the weekend when we should see few, if any showers.

  That means highs will return to the low-mid 90s.

The tropics show no signs of life for the next 5-7 days.

4 comments:

Mike P. said...

We didn't seem to know about this system a couple of days ago. I have several different weather apps on my phone including The Weather Channel and several New Orleans and Baton Rouge TV stations. At this very hour the forecast for Thursday thru Saturday calls for a 20 - 40% chance of rain depending on in whom you have the most faith. I believe this is just one more example of why 7-day forecasts are useless science fiction. I also believe this is why TV weather departments should refrain from using terms such as "pinpoint" and "exact" in their forecasts. (You know who you are!) And by the way - where's the Viper model?

Bob Breck said...

Right on Mike P. Years ago, in the summer months I would change from the 5 day to a 3 day forecast since beyond 3 days is meaningless in the Summer. Management at the time insisted I return the 5 day since "viewers demanded it". I never had a complaint. Seems viewers were smarter and knew beyond 3 days there was ZERO skill. Just using a 7 day implies a level of skill which we know isn't true. I use VIPIR when it initializes correctly. If it doesn't I don't use it. None of the models seem to have a clue lately. But you know I believe that in 2050 the Earth will be warmer and sea levels will be rising because the models say so!

simeon benjamin said...

Hi,Bob I have always loved tracking hurricanes since I was a kid.Growing up I thought about going to school for meteorology, but I have a stronger passion for plants so I decided to get my degree in Horticulture instead. This is really my favorite time of the year for cane tracking and it appears we could have a potential gulf stew in the making some time next week.The MJO is on the way back so with light wind shear and warm waters it appears the ingredients could be just right for our stew to get going. What do you think about this potential system in the making?

Bob Breck said...

Simeon...yea, Joe Bastardi mentioned the favorable phase of the MJO coming next weekend & The Weather Channel picked up on it on Monday. What's my thoughts? I'm having trouble beyond 3 days let alone 10-14 days. Read tonight's blog for my feelings regarding models. I wouldn't start packing the car just yet!