Sunday, August 26, 2012

Isaac Getting ready to Explode?

Satellite loops clearly show a better organized storm the last 3-4 hours, plus there has been a burst of lightning right with the T-Storms that are located around Isaac's center.  As the storm moves farther to the west, it is going over the loop current of warmer Gulf waters and I believe it's likely to see rapid development in the next 12-24 hours.   My fear is Isaac will beef up to a strong Cat. 3 or 4 storm as he approaches the Louisiana coast with very little time for folks who want to leave to get out of Dodge.   Models continue to struggle with a wide range of landfall guesses. VIPIR & the Euro. keep Isaac's center to our east more like BIX or MOB.   GFS has it farther to our west, west of Morgan City.  Which side of the storm will we be on?   It will make a HUGE difference.   New NHC forecast will be out shortly.   Unless I'm missing something, I doubt they change the track much except to shift it slightly closer to us.  Will undate if something different comes out.  Stay tuned and be ready to 1) weather the storm or 2) run from Harm's Way.

18 comments:

Briang said...

Hey Bob... Great explanation.. Wx channel is missing it. Wish I was there. Brian Greenwald..

Briang said...

Bob.. Great explanation. The wx channel is afraid to jump on the band wagon. Wish I was there to ride this one out with Fox8. Brian Greenwald. I'll be watching for more posts from you.

Bethany Jones said...

Thanks for keeping us updated, Bob! You're our favorite NOLA meteorologist!

Briang said...

Great explanation Bob. Wx channel hasn't read your post obviously. Wish I could be there to ride this one out with you. Good luck... Your former meteorologist in Kansas City... Brian G. I'll be checking back for updates

Ashli Dickens said...

NO ONE LISTENS UNLESS IT FROM YOU :)

SpiritualSeekers said...

I always skip the weather channel, the news stations, and come directly to Bob Brecks Blog! So grateful for his wisdom and skills! Everyone stay safe!

Vicki Meyer said...

I have always waited to see what you say before deciding. We were not leaving Chalmette, but we are now. Thanks!

Lachelle Ridgel said...

We Facebookers were anxiously awaiting your arrival to this evening news! We ALL wait to hear from you. I refuse to move until Bob says to.
We decided to play it safe..Bob was way too nervous. Better safe than sorry!
Thanks,
A 3rd generation Bob Breck HUGE fan who has evacuated!

robyn olive said...

Us folks over here in Picayune really depend on you. Not just in time of need, but for every day life. We know we can count on you. Keep up the great work.

HundredOaks said...

From looking at not one but several of the different models I am expecting to see the NHC adjust their forecast track to the left/west somewhat today.

HundredOaks said...

The NHC seems to have been on target with their intensity forecast, as in not showing that the storm was going to take a while to become a hurricane.

HundredOaks said...

I have that backward...I meant that the NHC has proven to have been correct in not forecasting some kind of "explosion" of the storm overnight last night.

AlbanySnowMaker said...

Chris Franklin was really down playing this storm on the air earlier this morning saying the pressure has risen to 989 mb... Don't think that was correct info - NHC still shows 988mb... and he said even if the center goes over us Alabama/Florida may still get the worst... I think that pretty much just confuses people watching, Chris... Bob, where are YOU? lol

HundredOaks said...

Well, even though there have been some people seemingly hyping this storm as a possibility to be severe, it really never has even met expectations as regards intensification and it seems to continue to be having some difficulties organizing itself and tightening its structure, which it would need to do if it is going to intensify, and then on top of that, the time to do so would seem to be running out. Ergo, I would not exactly say that the weatherman was wrong here to report what's been actually going on, as opposed to hyping it up.

gymnopedies13 said...

This storm was forecast to intensify overnight and nothing happened. Don't want to say too much too soon, but I am wondering if this storm might even start fizzling out. I think at worst it might end up being like Cindy, which hit a few months before Katrina and knocked the power out for a few days here and there.

Popcorn said...

Cat3 or Cat4? where did that come from ?

Popcorn said...

Don't understand why this storm was hyped up to begin with?

SunRunner said...

Why was this storm hyped? Because hype=money. Think about it.. The more they hype, the more we spend. The problem is people get used to the hype and after a couple "non events" we stop preparing properly and end up in trouble.