Saturday, August 25, 2012

isaac struggling near land...

Satellite loops confirm NHC discussion that Isaac remains a large disorganized system this morning and that should send up a red flag regarding the NHC's future track.  They do well with stronger storms, but have difficulty with weaker systems (remember Debby?).  As I have mentioned for awhile, Sunday is our "pay attention" day.  The farther west Isaac goes, the greater probability NHC will shift the track closer to us.  It still appears that the danger remains well to our east (Mobile to PAM), but let's see what the center does the next 24 hours.  I will be back on-air if need be Sunday night.  In the mean time, use your weekend to go over your check list in case we need to act Monday or Tuesday.  At the moment it is most likely to be NW Florida's problem. Stay tuned!

11 comments:

JOANNES WEE BEARS said...

Thanks Bob.

James Bell said...

Thank-you for your hard work Bob. O know forecasting is anything but an exact science with so many elements playing into the equation, but we can always count on you for straight talk.

Richard Taylor said...

OK, Bob! I am starting to get nervous. Spaghetti plots just changed that includes only 2 lines to FL the rest well west of FL which includes the New Orleans, LA area. I am starting to freak and I don't freak too often. I need you to get on the air ASAP. The NHC's graphs have not changed to represent the new spaghetti models. I have a feeling things will change tonight. HELP!!!!!!!!!

James Bell said...
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James Bell said...
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nicolew said...

Yes the 18z GFS has it coming right to the city and stalling. I know it's just a model but...not good

James Bell said...

Just looked and most models have it coming our way here in New Orleans, yet the NHC haven't changed anything, hopefully the know something the models don't. Any thoughts Mr. Breck??

AlbanySnowMaker said...

models are lining up over SE LA... not. good.

SunRunner said...

I saw the same thing Nicole.... But the NHC has not changed it's forcaset so we will wait till the morning.. But i did notice it is now forecasted as a CAT 3 storm at landfall... so yup Diamondhead is a little worried

AlbanySnowMaker said...

00Z GFS.... NOT GOOD!!!! ok Bob you will need to be on air tomorrow.. please...

nicolew said...

New GFS run just in...same thing roars ashore and stalls in La

Going to fill up with gas now....