Thursday, August 23, 2012

Issac Track Shifts Westward...

As I mentioned earlier, Sunday will be our "pay attention" day as we'll know for sure if Isaac will be a Gulf problem vs an Atlantic Coast problem.   NHC shifted Isaac's track slightly farther to the west and, it that trend continues, it increases our odds that SE LA/MS will feel some effects from the storm next Wed/Thurs.  The keys to watch...1) increase in wind speeds (stronger storm turns sooner) 2) Latitude - farther north the better for us.  If it stays at a lower latitude, the turn will come later putting us more at risk. !3) Forward speed - slower speed allows for turn to north.  Faster forward speed will bring him into Gulf.  Let's see what happens next 12-24 hours regarding strength.  At the moment, there is plenty of shear over the Gulf that would turn the storm BEFORE it gets to us (remember Ivan?)  Again, I'm not nervous yet. Stay tuned

15 comments:

Richard Taylor said...
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Richard Taylor said...

Bob, the 5 pm weather update was awful on Fox8. The lady is as nice as she can be but OMG she did not say anything and was acting like she didn't know what was going on. Technical difficulty caused her to lose focus. It was Bad...had to turn to another channel.

Rainbow68 said...

I'm feeling very nervous.

AlbanySnowMaker said...

Oh wow... A major model shift!!!! Ok the GFS and EURO brings it really really close now... I think I'm a little nervous now...

James Bell said...

The only reason I was Fox 8 is because of you Bob. That's why I don't watch on Fridays, your day off, and when I know you are not going to be on. You are the only one I trust when it comes to forecasting!

Pompo/Webmaster said...

the lady on Fox is a nice lady but I feel alone when Bob is off!!! LOL

nicolew said...

The NHC now has us firmly in the cone of doom as of the 11PM ET advisory on Thursday evening.

Waiting on the 00z GFS runs with Hurricane Hunter data.

AlbanySnowMaker said...

I agree the lady doesn't really examine the weather situation like you do Bob. I feel like she explains it just enough to "get by". Just curious: what's your gut feeling on this storm? The models have definitely made a dramatic shift today.... You think they'll shift more tomorrow?

nicolew said...

I have a question for you Bob. I'm supposed to leave for Atlanta on Tuesday night (driving), do you think that's even going to be possible or should I try to move up my plans to Monday if possible


And yes I know the models will shift. I just hate the uncertainty. :(

But Thanks for all that you do.

AlbanySnowMaker said...

Ok so I woke up this morning feeling better that the models shifted back eastward... But now I see Isaac has made another WSW move Overnight WHICH MEANS: the next few model runs will be shifting back to the MS/LA coast again by this afternoon.....

Richard Taylor said...

Actually, 8am GFS track takes Issac to the FL/AL stateline on Wednesday 2 am. I don't think this track will change enough that Louisiana should be concerned. Stay Tuned but not concerned. As far as the lady who is driving to GA...I would leave Sunday just to make sure I am there and safe. Remember, the models have it going into fl then ga as a Tropical Storm/Low Depression.

Richard Taylor said...

The 11am Track takes Isaac even more to the east than before putting it right into Florida. (Panama City Area) as a pretty strong Hurricane. It is then going into GA and they are expecting it to stall out which will be a problem for FL/GA for a while. I do not think Louisiana will be dealing with Issac. (Always subject to change...stay tuned)

Richard Taylor said...

The 2PM EST track shows Isaac on the same course. However, it does show the center of Isaac more North than previously reported. It continues to strengthen; however, it will be going over land and decreasing in wind speed over the weekend. Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, Isaac will strengthen to hurricane force sometime on Sunday 8am. It will be very important to monitor the storm on Sunday. The reason being…Isaac must start to make a north turn in order to keep the current track. Therefore, if you take a sheet of paper and hold it as ruler against the projected path until Sunday, you will see if it continued that path it would take it very close if not into the Louisiana/Mississippi coast. However, it is Isaac is predicted to make a more North turn sometime on Sunday taking it into the FL/Al area as a Cat 1 for sure. It is something that warrants Louisiana and Mississippi to continue to monitor. “We aren’t out of the woods until it makes landfall somewhere else.” (Quote from Nash Roberts) Track of Isaac can always change…as we have seen…continue to monitor FOX8 for currently updates.

cheryl said...

I think Nikki (as I call her, you understand, eh Zabrecky.:) she did just fine..clam, cool, collected and very professional. I don't know what people want, it's hard to fill in for a lengend!!

Richard Taylor said...

Cheryl, my comment regarding her was related to being so passive which makes her presentation of the information seem to be unreliable. She does not present the information professionally and perhaps could use an advanced public speaking class or self-esteem booster class. She has to sell her product to the public not just read reports or teleprompters. Also, her comments seem off the wall and insensitive sometimes in regards to public phone ins. For example, a lot of people were calling the station in a panic and her response on the air was, "You need to have a plan and if you have a plan then you don't have to worry..you need to have a plan people." This comment was very insensitive to the many people who are unable to have a plan due to poverty or other hardships. Not everyone has money, car, or family to just jet off to...they are scared and worried. Also, she seems like she has problems getting her point across. If a people are hired for a position, they should all be of high quality and can stand in front of a camera and present professionally. She is a very nice person...maybe too nice in fact. However, when it comes to presenting information about a possible hurricane approaching, she is not someone I would turn to for that information. I actually can say that for all New Orleans stations except Bob Breck...he is aggressive, straight forward, educated, good public speaker, knows how to calm people down, and knows how to get them off their butts too. Most of all...he is reliable.