Saturday, August 18, 2012

Pay Attention to "Training"...

With a tropical airmass in place and a slow moving cold front adding to the trigger, I'm concerned that we'll see a line of very heavy T-Storms form overnight and linger across the area into Sunday night.  With such deep tropical moisture around, we could easily see rainfall rates of 1-2+"/hr and if the stroms keep moving along the same track (training), total amounts could be 5-8".  Monitor the weather over night & Sunday as we could get into a flash flood situation.  That front will make it thru and push off our coast for Monday & Tuesday bringing drier air & comfy nights.

What bothers me about naming TS Helene is that a branch of government (NOAA) just comes out a week ago indicating that we will now probably see more named storms than previously thought before this season began.  NHC (which is under NOAA) claims it is not intimidated to name every little swirl, but I have been doing this now for 42+ years and Drs. Simpson, Frank, & Sheets would not have named Helene.  Would it have hurt to wait another 12 hours to see if the system would really hold together?  I think not as Mexico already knew a big rainstorm was coming .  The problem will exist for those trying to compare current hurricane records with those of the past.   Has their really been a big increase?  Or is modern technology now so precise that nothing escapes detection?  My opinion is it's the latter.

Computer models continue to develop a major hurricane(Issac) for next week out in the Atlantic.  Stay tuned!

1 comment:

Bonnie said...

Is this the wettest August ever ?

As for the quick naming of storms, yes, I agree, hold off til you know it's serious, but that is what we have you for! When you start getting concerned, that is when we need to get concerned.

Keep posting !