Monday, June 24, 2013

MJO Going Favorable...Chantal coming early July?

By this time last Summer we already had 4 named storms.  So far in 2013 we have two and will likely stay that way for another 7-10 days.  However, the Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO) which is favorable over the eastern Pacific, will shift to favorable over the southern Gulf & western Caribbean next week.  Since I believe the MJO is the main driver of Tropical development (Cosme will soon be Hurricane in East-Pac), look for things to pick up in our part of the world once we get into July.   Nothing is on the immediate horizon, but we will be going into the July 4th holiday weekend & most folks will be thinking vacation and not hurricanes.  Stay tuned!

In the short term, I think we'll see below normal (10-20%) shower chnaces the next 2-3 days before we go back into higher rain chances over the weekend.   We're hot for the next 3 months with only these spotty showers bringing us temporary relief.

8 comments:

S.B.B. said...

When we have a tropical storm or hurricane, the models constantly flip flop on where the system may go. How can you tell 10 or so days out that WE will get the system?

S.B.B. said...

When we have a named storm/hurricane out there, the models flip flop all the time on the direction the system will go. How can you tell 10 days out that WE will be getting in on whatever develops next week in the Gulf?

mikey said...

I've seen a couple of runs of a few models and they're putting at least heavy rain over our area the 4th of July holiday.

mikey said...

Saw where a couple of models put at least heavy rain over our area next weekend.

38b9bb9e-ddd3-11e2-922a-000bcdcb2996 said...

Bob, I heard you say last night that "computer models are indicating that something might form in the Western Gulf next week"... I have a question... Is there ANYWHERE online we can view those computer models...???

Robear said...

Bob, I have a question... Last night, you said "computer models are indicating that something may try to form in the Western Gulf next week".... Is there ANYWHERE online we can view these computer models...?!

Bob Breck said...

You can view several tropical models at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs.

I'm sure there are other sites too.

Robear said...

Thanks, Bob... You DA MAN!