For the past 2 days our rain coverage has been only 20-30% compared to a “normal” Summer day (40-50%). It appears that’s about to change as a broad upper low will drift slowly across the northern Gulf during the next 3-4 days. Our rain chances will rise from 30-40% on Thursday to 50-60% on Friday & 60-70% for Saturday. Remember the % has NOTHING to do with time. 70% probability refers to a POINT/LOCATION forecast. It does NOT mean it will rain 70% of the time. Obviously, 70% means you have a far greater probability for using your umbrella compared to 30%. In addition, 70% means at your LOCATION. If you leave your house to go shopping at the mall or grocery 5-10 miles away, you INCREASE your probability.
It appears July will finish quiet in the Tropics, although several models are trying to get a storm going in the 10+ day range way out in the Atlantic. Strong shearing winds closer to home (Gulf & Caribbean) will make for a hostile environment that will probably change once into August. Remember last July had ZERO named storms while August had EIGHT ! Stay tuned!
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