95% Certainty...Oh C'Mon Folks

Yep, you heard it right today.  A leaked preview of the U.N. (Politically motivated) IPCC report on Climate Change now claims that there is a 95% certainty ( who’s doing that math?) that man (burning fossil fuels) is causing Global Temperatures to rise (except they aren’t) & that their computer models indicate continue warming for the rest of this century !!!   Oh, they admit they are stymied to explain the lack of warming (that their models didn’t predicted) for the past 15 years and believe Volcanoes, decreased solar activity, natural variability contribute to that.    OK, admit your models aren’t right, but still increase the certainty of your forecast?   Go figure!

 

Data no one can dispute is the lack of tropical activity this summer in our part of the world.  We are about half the number of named storms compared to the same time the past 2 years.  Since no computer model shows tropical development the next 7-10 days, we’ll Enter the month of September with 5 named storms and ZERO hurricanes.  Sure September can, and probably will turn active, but the deeper into the month the promised early Fall cold front should start arriving providing us with some protection from the stronger storms.  My gut tells me any threats this season will stay to our east ( east of Mobile) or up long the east coast.  History tells us back in the 50s there were many land falling storms up the east coast like Sandy.  Alarmists want folks to believe it’s Global Warming/Climate Change, but in fact it’ll just be history repeating itself or, as we operational meteorologists know, it’s a return of a tropical CYCLE.  

 

Keep the umbrellas handy the next 2 days as high chances stay high.