As we approach mid-August, all the long range forecasting Gurus must be getting nervous as to the lack of tropical activity. It appears 1) something is hindering the formation of waves coming off of Africa (colder Indian Ocean?) and 2) those waves that do move off are smothered by the plume of African dust. I still expect a burst of activity breaking out soon and NHC says a tropical wave moving thru the Caribbean has a 30% chance at 5 days to become our next named storm (Erin). Our VIPIR run tonight keeps it an open wave over the eastern Gulf that is transported northward into a frontal zone early on Saturday. With another deepening east coast trough bringing a cold front thru by Friday morning, we should be protected from anything coming our way. Heading to the beaches this weekend could be a bust as more rain is likely there. Stay tuned!
In the short term, keep your umbrellas handy as the approaching front coupled with copious amounts of Gulf moisture should trigger above normal showers & T-Storms into Friday AM. That should keep highs mainly 90 or below and no heat advisories will be needed this week.
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