Satellite loops tonight appear to show the system in the Western Caribbean is not gaining strength. Having said that, NHC gives it an 80% chance of becoming Erin or Fernand in the next 2-3 days. Erin is more likely to be named off the African coast where T.D. # 5 has formed. The system in the Caribbean will be investigated by the Hurricane Hunters on Thursday PM. I still like the VIPIR thinking which keeps this system an open wave and brings a slug of tropical moisture our way on Sunday. If that turns out to be the case, we won’t have to mobilize the troops this weekend. Obviously, we’ll know more after the plane gets into the disturbance. Stay tuned!
In the short term, we may feel some drier air for the next 2 days as a weak front pushes into the Gulf. Enjoy !
Bob
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