Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Erin or Not?

Satellite loops tonight clearly show a swirl of clouds down in the Caribbean NE of Honduras moving to the west.  IF that is the center of our next developing tropical system, it has a small window of time before it slams into Belize & the Yucatan.   Tonight’s VIPIR run keeps the system an “open wave/trough” and draws the moisture northward towards the Florida beaches Friday into Saturday.  IF that is the case, we would stay on the dry side of this system.  Since NHC has upped their probability for development to 40%, my guess is they will name Erin by Thursday before she reaches the Yucatan.   That would be good for us since an unusually deep upper trough digging down into the Gulf could turn the storm (if it develops) northward into the eastern Gulf.  Whatever happens, it appears we’ll see some more heavy rains before drying takes hold on Friday. Stay tuned!

 

Huh?  There’s something coming off of Africa?   Get a life!

1 comment:

Tee Koenig said...

ok bob I have family coming in from ohio this weekend to the northshore but a couple of days in biloxi.. the alarmists have been "screaming" northern gulf since this thing was a cloud.. what do you think.. really??