We have reached the Heart of Hurricane Season with an unusual lull across the Tropics. Wasn’t this supposed to be another super active season (Yes?) What’s going on? I’ve mentioned this before but I’ve noticed an abundance of tropical upper lows (T.U.T.T.) that have persisted for the past 2 months creating/maintaining a hostile environment for development. In addition, strong winds blowing off of Africa have created a huge plume of dust for weeks smothering most waves. Even the few (Chantal, Dorian & Erin) that have formed didn’t make it across the Atlantic. Historically, we have the 1st hurricane by August 10th. So far we have none. With the next 5-7 days looking quiet, with signs of repeated east coast troughs bringing early Fall cool fronts, I can’t help but believe we’ll not see the early forecasts prove to be way too high. Doesn’t mean we’ll see no threats here in September. I still expect to see a tropical explosion/burst for about 2-3 weeks but the longer it delays, the more likely we’ll get thru without the huge numbers of the past 2 years. Stay tuned!
In the short term, another trough is approaching while the surface Bermuda high builds westward. Moisture is rotating around the high so I expect the next 2-3 days to see fairly high (40-50%) rain chances. By the weekend, an upper ridge builds back over us decreasing showers and increasing temps.
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