Sunday, August 18, 2013

The Computer Models Say...

Several days ago I talked about how too many (if not all) weathercasters show us various computer models and then believe that's what will happen.  The current "Gulf Disturbance" provides us with another learning opportunity.  1) computer models have great difficulty with small, weak, minor systems.  They tend to over play development & rainfall.  2) Never let the facts get in the way of a good story. Examples are Global Warming and Hurricane Hype.  Local news organizations went way overboard showing how Parish governments were preparing for the "Gulf Disturbance" this weekend.  All it did was unnecessarily scare folks (especially the elderly) into thinking we had reason to worry about something that wasn't there yet.   I know it's easy to "Monday Morning" quarterback, however, look back at my blogs and read why I thought we had no reasons to worry.  3) Upper level low over Gulf almost always means hostile (too much shear) environment for tropical development.

Currently, radar and satellite loops indicate a small area of low pressure has formed over Breton Sound  east of the River along the stalled front just off our coast.  This is more a winter-like low and we are on the dry side of it with brisk northerly winds giving us an early Fall-like feeling.  Just to the east of Mobile Bay heavy rains persist making for a sad weekend to be at the beaches.   I don't see any widespread  rain around today and we'll have to see if the rain boundary shifts back westward for Monday after this low/wave pulls away to the NE. 


courage1 said...

will we see any flash flooding tomorrow and tuesday?

Bourbon St. Blues said...

Bob you are so right in your commentary here, I only caught WWL at a local restaurant Saturday and thought their coverage was overkill. They acted like a major storm was coming, yet Plaquemines tides hadn't even risen.

Then when the weather portion of the news aired they had all the models pushing what was left into Mexico, I was not understanding this hyped up coverage.