Tonight's satellite loops still show a well defined circulation in the central Atlantic but there are few T-Storms around it. Water Vapor indicates lots of dry air is just to the north and ahead to the west so TD # 2 will struggle to retain its identity during the next 2-3 days. None of the computer models develop it so I think Bertha will have to wait...unless NHC needs to get the total number of named storms higher? The longer range models develop yet another unusually deep east coast trough that 1) might bring us our 3rd July cold front & 2) could result in a storm forming along the east coast like Arthur back on July 1st. The trough would protect us so, at this time, I am not worried about any tropical threat here for the rest of this month. August 10th begins the HEART of the hurricane season through about Sept. 30th so we'll have many weeks yet to pay attention. Stay tuned!
In the short term, our weather this week will depend on the position of a cut off upper low that is nearly stationary over central Alabama. We should still be on the dry side of it for Tuesday with rain chances below normal (30%) and mainly during the PM. IF the low shifts to our west, looks for higher (50-60%) chances for Wed-Friday.
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