Wednesday, August 27, 2014

How I Hate August...

People ask me "what's it gonna be like this weekend".  Most of the year I can tell them with a degree of confidence what I feel will happen.  But then comes August where steering currents go into the dumper, water temperatures soar out of the cooler and forecasts depend on something that hasn't formed yet, may not form at all.  Computer models are clueless so I revert back to old school...looking for and indications on satellite and radar loops for any hints of development.  Such a swirl is 100 miles east of Brownsville, TX drifting slowly to the west.  Earlier indications had it moving inland so no problem....Hold on...RPM tonight's model run takes the system inland on Thursday BUT brings it back into the Gulf on Friday and heads it to the north.  It certainly looks like a TG or TS will form south of Houston.   Why am I concerned?   Because I don't put complete faith in computer models with weak tropical systems.   History has proved them to be more wrong than right.   What if this system drift farther to the east on Friday?  Or drifts farther to the west?   Vastly different impacts will exists for Louisiana.   So..."what's it gonna be like this weekend"?  Stay tuned!  it changes daily.   Can't wait for those September cold fronts!

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