Thursday, September 11, 2014

Edouard Forms, Fay coming to Gulf?

The season 5th named storm (Edouard) formed tonight way out in the Atlantic. It will not threaten land.  A weak area of low pressure has moved inland just north of West Palm Beach.  It will drift WSW and emerge back over the Gulf late on Friday.  little development will occur in the short term, however, as whatever forms, by late Saturday this system will move across the "loop current" (highest oceanic heat content) giving it the fuel to strengthen into Tropical Storms Fay on Sunday.   Several computer models keep her well south of the LA/MS coast taking it more westward into Texas.   Our VIPIR model brings it a lot closer to the Louisiana coast by late Sunday into Monday.   The second scenario would bring far worse impacts for us with heavy rain potential (3-5"+) and gusty winds (40-60+) in squalls.  Since we have nothing to track, I'm not jumping on either bandwagon just yet except to say...whatever your weekend plans are...PAY ATTENTION until we know if this system will become a threat to us.  NHC doesn't seem too concerned since they don't have a Hurricane Hunter scheduled out until Saturday...IF NECESSARY.  Stay tuned!

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