Thursday, September 25, 2014

Weekend Woes? Maybe not.

Sometimes it’s hard to figure out what’s going on with the weather.  You do have computer guidance, several models that often agree , but occasionally disagree.  Satellite loops often are a big help, but sometimes they just add to the confusion.  I always like to tell you what I know and then what I don’t know.  1) I know there are several upper level lows that over time will bring deeper Gulf moisture over us.  2)  No cold fronts will be coming for the next 7-10 days.   3)  Since we haven’t had any rain for 6 days, it’s less likely (without a front coming thru) that streak will last beyond Friday.   4)  With all the upper disturbances creating wind shear, no tropical system is likely to form in the Gulf.    OK, so what don’t I know?  Where will the moisture boundary form this weekend?   Over us, to our east? Or to our West?  That will make a HUGE difference.  How about timing of the showers arriving?  Friday looks dry, Saturday morning looks dry, Saturday afternoon & evening turns semi-wet, Sunday looks to be the soggiest.   But what could change all that?   What could happen to make our weekend mostly dry?   It goes back to where the moisture boundary/surface trough sets up.    Earlier model guidance   had 2-3” + rainfall totals.   Tonight’s update has only .25-.50”.      hate to fence sit, but it’s one of those “iffy” forecasts where confidence is low, uncertainty is high.  Don’t cancel any weekend outdoor plans just yet.   Let’s wait until tomorrow when the models will, hopefully get into better agreement. 

 

The Tropics are quiet on this final weekend of September.

1 comment:

Bourbon St. Blues said...

I always like the way you use satellite loops to discuss the weather what you think is going to happen. Not so much model runs...seems the models are not consistent, although I seem to have the most faith in Viper....its nailed a lot of forecasts...

Have a great weekend everyone...