Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Will It Rain? Some Where!

I often mention that the 7 day Forecast becomes useless in the Summer time.  In fact, years ago, I reduced the 5 day forecast to 3 days in June thru Sept.   Giving a 7 day forecast implies there is some skill when in reality there is not.   Oh for sure we can go out 7 days temperature wise (it’s gonna be hot!), but to say which day will have higher rain chances?  Silly.  All 3 of my competitors tonight had the EXACT same rain chances for the next 7 days taken right off the computer guidance from the National Weather Service.  None of them indicated the uncertainty factor the further out in time one goes.   I just admit that I am not good enough to tell you beyond 3 days which day will see better rain chances…unless there is a tropical system coming.   Please don’t buy into the hype that there is any skill in the summer forecast at 5-7 days.


In the short term, it appears a boundary for storms is setting up once again over the western Gulf extending northward into east Texas.  We won’t be completely dry on Wednesday, but shower coverage should be limited to 20-30% at most.  Higher chances (30-40%) come back for Thursday & Friday.  An umbrella is part of your Summer attire for the next 4 months!

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