Highly Uncertain Forecast...

I had a caller irate with me for not knowing if Tropical Storm Erika would affect New Orleans.  Somehow he felt I should be more certain where it was going.  Never mind it was like 3,000 miles away and at least a week from us.   Then today on their discussions, NHC say this…”the center of Erika is not easy to locate.”   “There is UNUSUALLY high uncertainty in this forecast”.   Geez, now I feel better.     I think that is the problem with most people and not just this caller.  There is a PERCEPTION that the UNCERTAINTY in the forecast is minor, when beyond 3 days it’s just the opposite.   Recall Danny last week…was supposed to approach the U.S. but just fizzled under SW wind shear.    Erika could do the same.   Computer models do not handle weak & small storms very well.   I need to do a better job of communicating that FACT to my viewers.   NHC  now issues a 5 day forecast track.  The average track error at 5 days is nearly 250 miles.  That’s farther than from N.O. to Mobile.  Keep that in mind when you watch weather folks display the NHC track.

 

Locally, we have been enjoying an early Fall preview that I can’t remember happening ever in late August.  Sure, mid to late Septemeber we start getting real fronts, but this week has been a welcomed break from our long summer heat.   We will end up with 26 days of 95+ compared to only 5 last year.   However, the hottest Summer on record (2011) had 50 days of 95+, almost double this year.   Our good feel air will depart by Saturday making it feel summer-like again.  Stay tuned!