Monday, September 14, 2015

Ida in Gulf ?

NHC was watching a cluster of T-Storms over the Southwest Gulf this morning, but that system hasn’t developed.   They cancelled a hurricane hunter plane for this afternoon.   Computer models are now indicating a low will form over the eastern Gulf later this week.  NHC is strangely quiet on this.  Fast upper winds over the northern Gulf should mean anything that does develop will be steered well to our east and we’ll be mostly dry all week.   However, historically we are in the most active part of the hurricane season.    Globally, there was not one tropical storm or hurricane/typhoon this past weekend despite it being the heart of the season.   Obviously, El Nino & the warm Pacific waters haven’t gone away.  There is more at play here.   Water temps are just one ingredient in the tropical cake.  I believe the MJO has gone into the inactive(sinking air) phase over the Pacific with the active (rising air) phase moving to the Atlantic.  We could see several named storms spring up this week & next, but the El Nino shearing winds will hopefully keep  us protected.  We are only 2 weeks+ from October and more cold fronts will be coming.


In the short term, low level moisture has increased & we will feel more summer like for the rest of this week.  IF a storm does form over the eastern Gulf, we should stay mostly dry as we’ll stay on the dry side of the system.   Stay tuned!


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