Joaquin Testing Skills of NHC

My first hurricane experience was Agnes in 1971 while I was at Ch. 13 in Tampa.  We had no satellite loops back then, no tracking programs, no computer models.   We did have the AF Hurricane Hunters flying into Agnes giving us the data that we hand plotted on maps to determine motion.  Now with satellite animation, computer models and aircraft flying all around the storms, we have improved tracking hurricanes by many miles.  However, every now and then comes a storm that confuses the computers & the forecasters that try to figure out what’s going on.   Tonight most models are bring Joaquin becoming a Cat. 4 on Thursday PM.  They then turn it back to the NW with Washington, D.C. being in the “bullseye”.  Our VIPIR model turns it sooner into South Carolina, but here’s the problem.  The European model, long considered the model with the best physics, take Joaquin to the northeast NEVER threatening the U.S.   Wow!   What to do?  Millions are at risk, but which model will be correct?  What a coup if it’s the Euro as that is the ONLY model keeping it away from the U.S.    I’m just glad we are protected by strong winds shear from a deepening upper trough.   That should keep a strong northerly flow over us both surface and aloft bringing cooler and drier air our way.  Overnight lows will be in the 50s & 60s with daytime highs 75-80.   Locally, the first weekend in October will be a great one here.   IF you travel this weekend takes you anywhere along the east coast, pay attention to Joaquin.   The “Fat Lady” has taken the stage and is about to begin singing the end to our hurricane season locally.  Other folks are not so fortunate.   Stay tuned!