Monday, September 7, 2015

September...One down, 3 to Go.

I have mentioned on this blog many times before that in the history of record keeping, there has been only one (1893) major hurricane cross the Louisiana coast after October 1st.    Translation…even though the Hurricane season officially doesn’t end until November 30th, IF we can get to October, any storm that might come will not be strong enough that it would require an evacuation.  That’s a big deal for most folks.   Computer models are not showing any major storm moving across the Atlantic into the Gulf, so unless something forms along an old frontal boundary, I’m feeling really good that we won’t have a serious threat this season.  The “Fat Lady” is not singing yet, but she has entered the building and is walking towards the stage.  September has one week down with 3 to go.  Today is the anniversary of the great Labor day Hurricane of 1935…one of only 3 Cat. 5s at landfall (Andrew, Camille)


In the past 10 years, the average dates for the first real cold front has been Sept. 25-27th.   That would mean we have about 2 ½ more weeks of summer-like heat to deal with.  Since Autumn begins on Sept. 23rd, that sounds about right.   We do have a front that will push close by the end of the week.   It doesn’t appear to have enough upper support to force it down into the Gulf, but that might change.  More likely is the front will stall out over south LA/MS increasing our rain chances and making us less hot.  We need some good soaking rains on the South Shore  as most of the weekend storms stayed north of Lake P.   There is a weak surface low over the northeast Gulf, but an upper low in the central Gulf is producing strong SW shearing winds that should prevent any development before it moves inland on Tuesday.  Stay Tuned!

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