Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Late October Gulf Low?

Ya know, all Summer the computer models have been trying to develop low pressure/tropical storms &/or hurricanes in the Gulf.   Their projections 10-14 days out have all proven incorrect.  Well, the American model is at it again tonight placing some kind of storm south of us NEXT Saturday, not this Saturday.  Impossible?   Not really as I recall Hurricane Juan crossed the Louisiana coast as a Cat. 1 back in the last week of October 1985.   Do we place any value in a projection that far out.   Not yet as 1) there is nothing there and 2) more cold fronts are coming.  The reason we don’t see major Hurricanes in Louisiana in October is two fold.  Cold fronts start cooling the northern Gulf waters and westerly wind shear is usually so strong that any Gulf system is steered well to our south and east.   My only concern is the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is shifting to the favorable (rising air) phase for the next 2-3 weeks.     That will likely allow a couple of late season named storms to form busting the forecasts of all the experts.   If we were still in August or September, I would be nervous.  A more likely scenario is a weak tropical system develops over the southern Gulf and brings much needed rainfall to us and the Gulf South.   We have reached day 16 without rain at FOX 8.    Stay tuned!


FYI…A French TV Weatherman has been suspended because he published a book questioning the extreme claims about climate change.  Wow…am I next?

No comments: