Faith in Our Models...

As the 2016 Hurricane Season begins with 2 named storms already, it’s no surprise that the forecasting gurus are upping their totals on the number of storms expected.  However, what I don’t get is NHC coming out with an area over the southern Gulf that has a low chance for development 5 days from now.  Huh?  5 days?   Tonight there are no clouds over that area and the water vapor loop shows lots of WNW shearing winds.   So what gives?   Well, the GFS & ECMWF are hinting an area of low pressure MIGHT develop early next week.  Now I know people want or demand forecasts to go out further in time, however, I’ve seen it time and again that the models overplay development.  Why do we need to add on to people’s anxiety when there is little to be gained and lots to be lost?  Just the start of Hurricane Season makes folks uptight.   I prefer to be way more conservative in alarming my viewers before they need to be.   I’ve mentioned this in previous blogs…if you over hype weather situations, when the real danger arrives, folks may just figure “there they go again”.   Cry wolf all the time can result in under reacting when the real danger appears.   The uncertainty of the “forecast” at 5+ days is enormous.   Why do we need to alert the public before anything forms?   My opinion is we don’t…but I no longer am on-air.   I would have preferred to see the NHC “Outlook” area mentioned and then graphics used to show why we, along the northern Gulf, have nothing to worry about even if something does form.  David did mention it will be a Florida problem, but didn’t go into details as to why.  Part of what I will be doing this summer is adding value to the FOX 8 weathercasts.  I’m kind of like Farmer’s Insurance…I know a lot because I’ve seen a lot!   Just watching the over hype of Bonnie tells me when a storm does enter the Gulf, we will need a calming voice.  I intend to be that voice of reason.  Stay tuned!

 

Today I was in a “fashion show” for St. Francis Xavier at Metairie Country Club.   I was dressed in a raincoat with an umbrella while it was raining outside.   Halfway thru I ditched the umbrella & raincoat & put on sunglasses as Jimmy Davis sang “You are My Sunshine”.   When it was time to leave, the sun started to shine.  Go figure!  Amen!