Saturday, June 4, 2016

Fast Start for Tropical Activity.

While we are having tropical downpours tonight, they are associated with a slow moving upper low over the Rio Grande.  This upper low has created a strong SW flow over most of the Gulf that will prevent any threat from our next named storm Colin.  No Colin is not there yet, but the daylight satellite loop showed a small circulation east of Cozumel heading to the WNW.    Computer models continue to indicate this will slowly develop either late Sunday or on Monday just north of the Yucatan over the southern Gulf.  NHC has scheduled a plane to fly out of Keesler on Sunday if necessary.  My take?   A weak circulation will be found and NHC will make it a TD before naming it TS Colin on Monday.  With such strong shear north of it, any development will be slow & the system should be steered towards central Florida.  A weak cold front will push off our coast late Monday and dry us out for several days.    The next thing we’ll need to pay attention to is any development along this front sometime late next week.  We could see Both the C & D storms before we get to mid-June!   My take?  I’d rather see an active start and then a slow heart of the season (Aug-Sept) when storms are strongest.  At any rate, we should not have to deal with either of these early systems.  At the very least, it should get you thinking what you will do IF we get a threat from a major storm this season.  Have you checked with Uncle Charlie in Memphis or Aunt Mandy in Monroe in case you need to evacuate?   Staying with family/friends reduces costs greatly.  Only those with deep pockets who have taken personal responsibility (2nd story, generator, food, water etc.) could stay knowing getting around  town (curfews) will be highly restricted for days or weeks.   We have no El Nino this summer to protect us so the only thing to do is pay attention as we’ll give you plenty of notice before a storm threatens.  Stay tuned!

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