After weeks of zero activity worldwide, we now have 4 tropical storms. 2 are in the western Pacific & the other 2 are in the eastern Pacific. For the eastern Pacific basin, this is the latest “A” storm to be named since 1969. Back in the Atlantic Basin, nothing is going on and nothing is expected for quite a while. There is an extremely strong Atlantic high coupled with lots of Saharan dust moving off of Africa that should keep the lid on activity for several weeks. We are still 4 weeks from the heart of Hurricane Season (August-September) and I would love to see that African dust pattern continue. What this quiet period should tell us is that warm water temperatures are only one ingredient to the tropical cake. I’m finding that the phase of the MJO seems to be the key to tropical activity. We have been in the “sinking air” phase for the last 4 weeks quieting the early season activity. What we don’t want to see is the “rising air” phase to show up during August & September time frame.
Locally, aside from the heat & spotty storms, not much is going on. I remember people would ask me…” will it rain today?” My simple answer was…”somewhere”! Unless there is a strong upper high capping the atmosphere, our intense heating should bubble up spotty storms each day. Timing & location will vary along with coverage, but until Fall cold fronts start coming or tropical activity kicks up, we are in for a boring 8-10 weeks. Remember, boring is good ! stay tuned