Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Stormy Pattern? Maybe

We have been following a weak surface low that formed over the NE Gulf last week and today is drifting SLOWLY westward in SW GA.  It shows no indication OF MOVING BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE Gulf.  However, storms have exploded again over the NE Gulf.  Let’s try to figure what is going on.  1) We have an upper high centered near Hattiesburg with 2) an upper low centered just east of Daytona Beach.  This is creating upper level divergence resulting in rising air forming lots of T-Storms.  3)  Buoy data indicates RISING surface pressures  while wave heights are increasing (4-6’)  4)  Radar loops show an ill-defined circulation south of Destin.  What does it all mean?  Unless pressures start to fall & the low level circulation south of Destin gets better organized,  we’ll just see above normal clouds & showers for the next 2-3 days.  The computer guidance has been slamming all of the northern Gulf with 5-10” of rain between now and Friday.   A lot of that will depend on the movement of the features I described above.  Remember, 80% chance of rain does not mean it will rain 80% of the time. It is a point forecast (your house) and if it only rains for 5 minutes with a heavy downpour, the forecast verifies.  Words of wisdom, do not plan on grilling outside without having a backup plan.    


Signs of Fall are showing up over the NW & Northern Rockies.  Parts of Montana are in the 50s while we’re frying at 90+.    I am here to give hope to those suffering thru August heat.  We are over 2/3 of the way done with Meteorological (Jun-Aug) Summer.   We could start to see some cooling as soon as 4-5 weeks.  I’ve already noticed the difference in the sun angle from June 21st.   Besides, the Saint’s return to FOX 8 this Thursday night.  Now that’s a true sign of Fall.  Who Dat!

1 comment:

Mrjarod said...

I know you may get tired of hearing this, Bob. But we love to still have you here. You've been my go to guy for many years. I'm guilty of only tuning in during storm season, but many of us truly appreciate you and your knowledge and your experience. And while many who retire often leave their former occupations in their dust, I cannot express how thankful I myself am for you continuing your blog. Thank you very much, Bob. J.