Saturday, September 24, 2016

Computer Models have Bloggers Buzzing...

For the 3rd straight day, several long range (10-12 days) computer models develop a major hurricane in the Caribbean and move it westward.    The problem continues to be location that far away.  Initially, Louisiana was the bullseye, then the Florida beaches and today anywhere from the Yucatan to west of Tampa Bay.   So let’s take a deep breath and go over what we do know.    1)  There is a strong tropical wave out in the Atlantic that is farther south than any system so far this year.  2)  It is moving very quickly (20-25 mph) to the west so development should be slow.  3)  The western Caribbean has some of the warmest water temps. 4) IF it did head into the Gulf, that wouldn’t be until late next week (Oct. 6-7).  The rest we don’t know except, historically, there has only been one (1893) land falling major hurricane cross the Louisiana coastline after October 1st.     IF this system becomes a storm (Matthew) and then a strong hurricane, stronger hurricanes typically curve to the north and then northeast.   Notice, I have not mentioned the “Fat lady” lately and that is because of the potential  future threat from this system.   She is in the house and heading towards the stage, but she won’t start going onto the stage until we know for sure we will not have a threat from this disturbance.  We’ll have all week to watch it and plenty of time to prepare.


Of immediate interest is a cool front that appears to be heading our way next week.  No, it won’t require sweaters and jackets, but it should push away the tropical feel we have endured for 5 months..  Hopefully, more frequent and stronger fronts will start coming putting the nail in the coffin to our 2016 hurricane season.  Stay tuned!

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