Thursday, September 29, 2016

Matthew getting Stronger, No Turn yet...

NHC is indicating everything is pointing to Hurricane Matthew will develop into a major Hurricane by this weekend just to the SE of Jamaica.    For over 24 hours now, computer models keep Matthew moving to the west and slowing down with a sharp turn to the north on Saturday.   His forward speed has decreased a little tonight and that is good.  RIGHT NOW, it appears this system will NOT enter the Gulf, but stay east of Florida and threaten the Carolinas early next week.  That would place us on the dry side of the disturbance keeping our delightful stretch of Fall weather going for most of next week.   What could go wrong?   Well, what if Matthew doesn’t make the turn until after 80 degrees west, or later?   Then Florida and/or the eastern Gulf becomes into play.   With the current stalled upper low over the eastern states coupled with another digging trof for later next week, I’m fairly confident we will be protected from Matthew.  So much so that I’m allowing the “Fat Lady” to start climbing the stage & to get ready to sing next week.   Here’s what I’ll be watching.   I like to follow the centerline track of the NHC forecast to see which way they are shifting/trending the direction.   You can join me by going to the NHC web site and click on the interactive map button.   Tonight that centerline is just to the right/east of Jamaica.  Let’s see which way NHC shifts it tomorrow & Saturday.  If there is no turn, that centerline will shift farther to the west.  It’s an easy way to see where NHC is thinking the storm threat will go.   Stay tuned!


In the short term, enjoy our first real cold front of the season.    Wow, what a feeling out tonight!   Plus it’s not even October yet!

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