Saturday, September 17, 2016

Where's the Rain?

I really was stunned by the lack of widespread rainfall today given the tropical atmosphere that covered all of SE LA/MS.  I think it shows how the lower sun angle is preventing the intense daytime heating needed to bubble up daytime storms.    The weak rotation on radar loops last night is gone and Sunday may be just another day like today…lots of clouds, some sunshine and a few storms.   One thing that is showing up on the last several computer model runs is a real cold front coming the last week in September.  That’s still 10-12 days away so don’t go running for the sweaters and jackets yet.  More importantly, no computer model is showing tropical development in the Caribbean or Gulf for the next 7-10 days.  That will bring us closer to October and I’m starting to feel more comfortable regarding not having a major storm threat for us this season.  The “Fat Lady” has arrived at the theater and has entered the building, but it’s still a long way down the runway before she reaches the stage.   I suspect we’ll start to have a better feel after next week if/when that cold front arrives.  Stay tuned!

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