Thursday, October 6, 2016

Matthew Staying Just Off Florida's Coast

I have been looking at the ground truth wind speeds along Florida’s east coast and did see where West Palm Beach had sustained winds of 42 mph with higher gusts.   That’s  sure to knock out power in many areas.    What I’m seeing on satellite and radar loops is the eye of Matthew paralleling the coast.  As my earlier post indicated, I still feel the brunt of this storm is heading towards Georgia (Savannah) & South Carolina.   That doesn’t mean Florida escapes with no problems, but IF it stays on the current track, the worst storm surges will be farther to the north.   NHC has shifted their centerline track farther to the east on the 10 PM advisory and that would keep Florida spared of the life threatening impacts that killed hundreds in Haiti & the Bahamas.   Computer models still indicate Matthew might try to make a loop later this weekend, but we are in October and upper winds will block Matthew from coming into the Gulf next week and threaten us.   David Bernard was emphatic on his broadcast tonight that Matthew isn’t coming to us.   As Jack Lord would say…”Book it Dano”.  Ain’t gonna happen.   The best case scenario would be for Matthew to make the turn to the NE away from Georgia & the Carolinas and no more loss of life occurs.  

 

Several comments to my earlier post indicated it’s better to be safe than sorry.    What my experience shows me is people will leave their homes when there is clear & present danger.  However, evacuation is very expensive and if the danger turns out to be less than expected, those folks will be way less likely to leave the next time & the next time.    If everyone had unlimited funds, sure better safe than sorry makes sense.  But many families live paycheck to paycheck and they just can’t leave unless the certainty of death or injuries is near 100%.    I just believe Matthew was way overhyped.   My opinion, that’s all.   The story is far from over.

 

Boy have you looked at the temperatures across the Plains & Northern Rockies?   It’s in the 30s & 40s tonight behind a cold front that will arrive here on Saturday.   It should get our nights back into the 50s on the N-Shore & 60s south of Lake P.   More fronts are on the way and the “Fat Lady” is on stage and approaching the microphone.  It’s almost time for her to sing.  Stay tuned!

2 comments:

Karl Schroeder said...

Bob,
Once again, your analysis and forecast have proven correct. You're still very very good at what you do, even in retirement. Thanks for your blog. It's a "go-to" source for me. This time it also helped my south Florida relatives.

Renee said...

thanks Bob