The Agony of Incomplete...

Years ago (70s), ABC’s Wide World of Sports showed a skier losing control and tumbling down a ski slope with the announcer (Jim McKay) saying…”the agony of defeat”.   Well tonight I feel the agony but it’s not defeat, rather incomplete data from what NHC now gives an 80% chance for developing into a named storm next week.   NHC designated Invest 93L over the western Caribbean this afternoon and that means computer models are now running showing possible future paths.  The problem is we don’t know where the center of low pressure is and that means the initialization (starting) point for the models is a pure guess.   Based on what I’m seeing on satellite loops places the initialization point way too far to the west neat the coast of the Yucatan when it appears on satellite loops to be farther to the east north of Honduras.   NHC has schedule a Hurricane Hunter to fly out Sunday to see if we have a closed circulation and only then will we know whether to buy into the track guidance.  T-Storms have decreased around the center this evening, but that should be temporary (diurnal) and I expect a flair up again before morning.  My 2 scenarios from yesterday still stand.  #1 (more likely) system stays weak until it crosses the Yucatan and develops over the southern Gulf making landfall south of Brownsville with little impact on us.   #2 (less likely) system stays weak and dipping east coast trough draws it northward into the central Gulf veering to the NE towards the Florida beaches with little impact on us.   Until I receive more information, I’m not getting nervous.  Besides, there are several factors in our favor.   1) all the rains of May & June significantly cooled the waters over the northern Gulf.  2)  The highest oceanic heat content waters are not in the Gulf meaning whatever forms should not get too strong.  3)  Historically, there has only been 1 major Hurricane (Audrey) cross the Louisiana coast during June.   We are much more vulnerable during August & September compared to June & July.  At this time tonight, we still have no storm to track and the only thing for certain is the bloggers will speculate that this system is coming to us.  Let’s wait for the data from the plane tomorrow.  Stay tuned!