Monday, July 17, 2017

Active Cycle Coming?

Yes I’m back from a long trip to Europe.  Very nice if only we could eliminate the 10 hour+ flights.  Those of you who have followed me over the years know I’m a big believer in CYCLES whether it’s Global warming/cooling, sunspots, El Nino/La Nina etc.    The MJO often predicts an active uptick in tropical activity like back in June with Bret & Cindy.   Today we have a very active EPAC and a lessor active MDR in the Atlantic.   NHC did upgrade a system east of Barbados to Tropical Storm Don this afternoon, but his life cycle will be very short as the Caribbean has strong wind shear that will quickly affect Don.  Behind Don is another system that computer models take farther to the north well east of the islands later this week.  There is nothing showing up in the models in the 10-14 day period that threatens the Gulf.  That will get us into August when, historically, the heart (most active) of the hurricane season occurs.   Usually, Aug. 15th thru Sept. 30th is our crunch time IF we are to have any tropical threats.  What I am seeing tonight is a pattern of upper lows (TUTT) stretching from the SW Gulf back across the Northern Caribbean Sea  that makes for a hostile environment.   We know hurricanes need upper level highs to allow the low level convergence to vent, so upper lows are good news for us. 


In the short term, our current pattern is NOT totally “typical summertime” in that the movement of storms is slow and erratic, unlike the more “normal” SE to NW movement around the Bermuda High.   This slow movement results in 2-3” of rain in less than an hour over small areas that leads to brief street flooding.  Expect more of the same on Tuesday.  A drying trend sets in for Wed-Friday meaning we should see hotter temperatures.   If you think positive, we only have about 8-10 weeks before real cold fronts start to return.  Stay tuned!

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