Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Don a Wasted Name...

As Trop. Storm Don enters the eastern Caribbean, he will likely be sheared apart and downgraded to a Depression shortly.  In fact, back in the days of Dr. Neil Frank & Bob Sheets, this system probably would never have been named.   Since we have such high quality satellite pictures added to the longer ranges of hurricane aircraft, storms are named far sooner now than back in the 60s, 70s & 80s.  It makes comparing decade to decade total named storms rather useless, much like who was better…Jim Brown or Walter Payton, Bill Russell or Kareem Jabbar?    But let’s give it a try.  Weather Bell’s Joe Bastardi pointed out the 1950s had 99 named storms versus 145 for the past decade.  However, the 99 storms of the 50s were far stronger than the 145 storms of the past decade on average.   Are we seeing a dramatic increase in the number of storms due to global warming?  Or, could it be our vastly better technology allows us to classify systems that years ago would have been nameless?   Regardless, it appears we are seeing more storms that are weaker, not stronger than in the past.   What gives?   I don’t know.  What I do know is we are currently in a streak of 11+ years without having a major (Cat.3+) hurricane cross the U.S. coastline.  That can’t go on forever.  There are indications that the MJO will shift into the favorable (rising air) phase sometime in the first 1-2 weeks in August.   You should be knowing where you will go & how you will get there BEFORE a storm threatens us.  Evacuations are very expensive & stressful.  I suggest you minimize both by contacting relatives and/or friends (who are inland away from storm surge) to find out if they can provide you with a place to stay during the threat.  Let’s hope this is not our year again, but it’s better to have your plan set up BEFORE the threat arrives. 


In the short term, any storms that form tomorrow will again be slow movers allowing for 1-2”+ totals in less than an hour.  This is the worst time of the year for the TV weather folks as they try to keep you interested in watching when you already know what the forecast will be.  Until the fronts start coming, expect highs 90+ with some daily storms somewhere.  Wow, what a brilliant forecast!  Stay tuned!

1 comment:

Aric Gisclair said...

This new technology is a great way for some extremists to validate their point that we cause Global Warming and by paying them, we can "fix" that problem.