Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Long Range Models Becoming Bullish...

While we have “enjoyed” a relatively cool summer with few days 95+, there really is no correlation to hot weather & hurricanes.  The hottest summers (1980, 2011) locally had quiet hurricane seasons in the Gulf.    Just having warm sea surface temperatures and / or hot land temperatures doesn’t translate into an active hurricane season.   Mother Nature is way more complex & that is why I believe climate models have difficulty in predicting the future.  However, if you believe in the models, they are becoming more bullish in the 7-10 day time frame with the Euro have a hurricane in the western Gulf and a strong storm approaching the northern leeward islands.  There is nothing there yet so one should not become alarmed just because a model develops a system.  Let’s watch to see if there is day to day consistency in the model runs before we begin to worry about something that is not there yet.


Played golf today and (shot 88) did not feel the usual August heat.  I remember many summers that had 30-50+ days 95+ with several toppling 100.  This year I think we have had maybe 3-4 days 95+.  The good news is we are running out of time for excessive heat.  Sure we can still be hot deep into September, but the odds favor a cool down rather than lingering heat.    I kind of enjoy watching The Weather Channel pushing the extreme heat out west when 8/10th of the country is below normal temperature-wise.  If you ever questioned whether they have an agenda, just watch them.  Like the American meteorological Society (AMS), all they push are stories/articles on global warming with never an opposing viewpoint.   One should wonder why?   Follow the money.

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