Sunday, September 3, 2017

Irma Likely to Become Cat. 5, Threaten SE U.S.

Hurricane Irma will likely strengthen to a Cat. 5 storm in the next 2-3 days as it is heading over some of the warmest deep ocean waters around the Bahamas.  Way too soon to send up any danger flags here, but this is what I do know tonight.   Recon aircraft is finding lower pressures that should mean NHC will up the intensity on their next advisory at 10 pm.   The models have been trending farther to the west bringing Florida & the East Coast into higher danger.  Most models continue to recurve Irma before reaching Florida keeping her out of the Gulf.  However, past history has shown several storms (Betsy, Andrew) near Irma’s projected path didn’t make the recurve and proceeded westward into the Gulf and into Louisiana.   Not saying that is likely (only 10% chance) to happen, but I don’t want you to believe we have enough skill to say for sure where Irma will go 5-7 days out.  This is going to be a killer storm when it makes landfall and likely to cause more widespread destruction like Harvey.   With FEMA & all 1st responders stretched to the max,  Irma will challenge the Nation’s capability to handle back to back major disasters.  For RIGHT NOW, it appears Irma will be someone else’s problem.  PLEASE stay tuned!


On the daylight (visible) satellite loop, a weak circulation could be seen just over the extreme southern Gulf.  NHC is giving it a slim chance to develop as wind shear remains rather high.  Way out behind Irma is another potential tropical system (Jose) that could develop behind Irma.   All attention should be centered on Irma as she will be the next greatest threat.


Locally, a cool front should arrive late Wednesday bringing us drier air and cooler nights later this week.   That front should help block Irma from coming to us.   Before the AGW crowd begins ramping up their  alarmists climate change…see, see, global warming theory.  Remember, Sept 10th is the PEAK of the activity (historically) during hurricane season.  Translation…we are supposed to see many storms at this time of the year.  


Bonnie said...

Update please, stressing out

Anonymous said...

The tracks have removed the East Coast now. You taught us Bob, these large storms can't turn on a dime. Anxiously awaiting your thoughts. Thanks