Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Irma Missing the Mountains...

What an amazing satellite loop of Irma tonight as she is cruising north of Puerto Rico and will stay far enough north of Hispaniola to avoid any interactions with their tall mountains.  That means there should be little, if any, weakening of her during the next 24-48 hours.  Her track has been accurately predicted by NHC so far.  However, the real challenge will be where her future track goes.  It’ll make a HUGE difference if she goes up the west coast of Florida vs going up the east side of the state.   As David mentioned tonight, just a 60-80 mile difference will result in vastly difference impacts.  I see nothing in all the computer guidance that takes Irma into the Gulf and up the western side.  Most model solutions bring her near Miami & then just along the eastern side of the state.  Her forward speed of 16 mph is a problem in making the turn, but I expect this speed to begin slowing down as she approaches Florida.   NHC’s latest track has no change in their thinking taking the eye near, or right over, Miami on Sunday.  This will bring damaging winds to all of the “Gold Coast” and farther northward up towards Cape Kennedy and northward into Georgia & the Carolinas.  From what I’m reading & seeing,  most of Florida has gotten all their supplies and should be ready for Irma.  There is still time for the track to shift a little farther to the east, which would spare the state from major impacts.  It’s certainly too close to not react and government officials will error on the side of safety, which they should.   Beyond Florida, Georgia & South Carolina appear to be equally in danger as Irma is projected to make another landfall between Savannah & Charleston.  Being such a large, powerful storm, it will take a long time for Irma to weaken and inland flooding along the eastern seaboard north of Florida could be another major concern.  Fortunately for us, a cold front has arrived and pushed well down into the Gulf.  This will block any movement our way from both Irma & Katia churning way down in the Bay of Campeche.   As we enjoy wonderful sunny, dry conditions this weekend, let us remember the folks in Texas still suffering from Harvey and all the folks Irma has and will impact.   Stay tuned!

 

My friend Joe Bastardi with WeatherBell Analytics suggested tonight that maybe we should go back & try to cloud seed large major hurricanes like Irma  There was some success with cloud seeding back in the 60s & 70s and, as Joe says, what do we have to lose?  We can’t make it any stronger, but we might be able to disrupt its circulation weakening it before landfall.  Interesting idea, but who will fund it?

3 comments:

Brandy Symons said...

Texas WAS cloud seeding before Harvey. Seeding isn't a thing of the past. It's happening now. Texas is very open about their cloud seeding efforts. I'm kind of taken back by the fact meteorologists don't know this...

HOWEVER, it would be great if "they" could reverse the damage "they" caused by dissipating the hurricanes through the same process that very well could have caused these monster hurricanes to begin with. Just my 2 cents. I'm nobody.

Aric Gisclair said...

FEMA should fund it, it has to be cheaper than paying for the forthcoming devastation!

8f1d62ec-93f0-11e7-b8e6-576be1fa2d2d said...

I keep hearing that Irma is the strongest storm ever recorded. I thought that Gilbert, Andrew, Katrina were also referred to as the strongest recorded.I'm confused by this.