Friday, September 8, 2017

NHC is Staying the Course...

I mentioned several blogs ago that computer models do very well with large & intense storms like Irma.  It’s difficult to go against the models when ALL of them keep indicating she will make a sharp turn to the north on Saturday.  I pointed out on my last blog that she has not followed the models that kept her just off the Cuban north coast and that has spurred a fury of responses.  If you want to know what NHC is saying, many of you go to their site or watch local broadcasters who repeat that information.  I have always prided myself on giving additional information that I see based on years of experience.  It’s what I do and I realize some folks don’t like that.  John Coleman (my early mentor & founder of The Weather Channel) once told me…”if you try and please all of the people all of the time, you’ll end up pleasing no one.”   So let me begin again on what Irma is doing.   She continues to move to the west at 12 mph, although it appears to me she has almost come to a halt just as the eye reached the north side of Cuba.  That may be the sign she is about to finally begin the turn to the north?   NHC has shifted their centerline track just slightly to the west now making landfall near Ft. Myers.  NHC says the blocking high north of Irma has been a little stronger than expected, hence the farther westward shift.  IF this pans out, the real bad part of Irma will be on Florida’s west coast with lesser impacts along the east coast.  Hurricane hunters flying around tonight say her winds are back up slightly so as of 10 PM Irma is back to Cat. 5.   So assuming the turn to the north happens and her winds don’t decrease, the greatest damage will come first to the Florida Keys, including Key West where the storm surge could be 8-12’.  Farther up the coast, Naples & Ft. Myers will get hammered and eventually Tampa-St. Petersburg.  Hurricane force winds will extend inland even to Disney World and power outages are likely to be widespread.  Irma will produce 5-10” of rain with some spots getting 6-12”.  That will be enough to cause some flooding, but she will not be like Harvey as models indicate a track northward into Georgia & Tennessee.  This still is Florida’s Storm with far less impacts to coastal Georgia & the Carolinas as earlier expected.   Let’s see what happens tomorrow.  We should know by midday if the turn is happening.   Stay tuned!

7 comments:

Unknown said...

Mr. Breck, I know all of the models say this is going west for a while, but the satellite images sure look like the storm stalled after making landfall in cuba and is starting to go a bit to the north in the last few frames of the satellite. To me, this looks a little off from the models. Could this mean the storm makes the northward turn earlier than the current models are projecting?

Harenton Chavez said...

don't think that turn is happening it doesn't make sense I think this storm coming into the gulf and making landfall closer to us stop beating around the bush hurricane center

Jill Billiot said...

Thank you Bob for telling us the truth which some people might not like it, but it's the truth!!! God bless you and please please come back!!!!

Anonymous said...

The last 5 days Irma has been following a wind current traveling WNW. This current heads SW once it gets past Cuba. Why then, would Irma ditch it and head in the exact opposite direction north? I would note that Katia and Jose are following the wind currents they're in to a tee. But . . . Irma is going to abandon hers. Why?

NOLA said...

I understand that the prediction model business tries to be more science than art but nobody in the prediction business bats a thousand.

I like that you take a step back and reexamine the assumptions. I'm looking forward to your next update.

Donald Harris Sr said...

Good forecasting.

www.ebonyxxxworld.com said...

Thank you bob for great forecasting. You make new orleans proud. Thanks again.