Thursday, October 5, 2017

Huge Westward Shift in Track...

As I awake and beginning the start of my 71st year on this Planet, computer models have come into total agreement that Tropical Storm Nate will impact Louisiana & Mississippi.  Last night, NHC had the centerline landfall at Pensacola.  This morning they have shifted it all the way to Boothville!  That’s a huge shift for NHC.  Why would they do that?  Because the overnight run of the Euro shifted more in agreement with the American (GFS) model, which now has the land falling center all the way over to the Texas/LA. Border as a weak tropical storm.  So there still is great model disagreement.   Several things to consider.   1)  In Irma, if you remember, the Euro 1st had her going up the east coast of Florida, then the west coast with final reality being slightly inland along the west coast.  That’s only about 100 miles of track error, but the impacts were huge as Tampa-St. Pete ended up on the weak side of the storm.  That’s what we need to pay attention to…which side will we be on.  Nate won’t reach the Gulf until late Friday and if Nate goes on the east side of the current cone, we will see very little impact.  However, if Nate goes on the western side of the current cone, there will be significant high water impacts outside the levee protection (risk reduction) system.   2)  This is a way different atmospheric set up than for any of the previous major Hurricanes.  There is an upper low moving north of Nate across the southern Gulf.  There is also what appears to be a low level circulation moving through the Florida Keys.   That is adding more uncertainty to the future path & strength of Nate.   With such hostile conditions (shear) aloft,  NHC now believes Nate will struggle to make a low end hurricane at landfall.  In addition, they indicate his forward speed will increase not allowing for a huge storm surge to build up.  So what to do?  IF this westward trend continues, you will have Friday & early Saturday to clean up your yard, put anything that might fly up in 60-70 mph wind gusts inside your garage or shed and make sure you have the usual supplies to endure some power outages.  RIGHT NOW, there is nothing to indicate Nate could strengthen into a major hurricane…in fact, there is a lot to say he might struggle to be a Tropical Storm.   IF the large amount of dry air over the Gulf gets entrained into the west side of Nate, he’s likely to be an “asymmetrical” (lopsided/east side favored) storm.  That would mean most impacts will be to the right of landfall.  Jim Cantore even said on TWC this morning that all the dry air could almost “kill” Nate making him just a weak tropical system.  So there is still a lot that could or couldn’t happen.   I will await several more model runs before I feel comfortable with the model guidance.   Make sure you watch FOX 8 at noon, 4 & 5 pm.  I will be back later this afternoon with my thoughts. Stay tuned!

7 comments:

DENISE said...

Happy Birthday! Enjoy!

Scrapsation said...

Happy Birthday

gymnopedies13 said...

I don't know if you use the Ventusky app, which was very accurate for Harvey and Irma, but it shows that the center is going to keep shifting west, and come landfall will not even be tropical storm strength. It shows New Orleans having top gusts of only 35mph. Wonder what you might have to say with this. Ventusky uses a storm model named GFS.

Rick Doherty said...

If I read the beginning of this blog correctly, Happy Birthday!!

Rick Doherty said...

If I read the beginning of this blog correctly, Happy Birthday!!

the girl next door said...

Happy Birthday, Bob!

Deacon Jimmy said...

Happy birthday!