Thursday, October 5, 2017

Hurricane Watch Issued for LA/MS coasts...

Tropical Storm Nate is about to emerge back over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea as it heads on a track that will impact much of the central Gulf Coast.  Nate is still 24 hours from reaching the Gulf, but his forward speed has increased and is expected to increase even more as he approaches us.   That is good news since that limits the amount of heavy rainfall.  NHC has not changed their centerline track bringing it right over downtown NOLA.   It is likely the final track will be either to the west or east of that center line.   If it goes farther to the east (20% possibility) we would see fewer impacts.  Several models take it farther to the west making landfall between Morgan City and Lafayette (30% possibility).  The far greater chance is around the center line track (50% possibility) which would bring some heavy rainfall (3-5” up to 7”), and wind gusts to 50-60+ in the city.   Obviously, power outages are very likely so  those without generators will be inconvenienced.  The fast forward speed will mean Nate will be gone by Sunday PM and Entergy should be able to start any repairs.   There will likely be flooding outside the levee protection system, especially on the North Shore of Lake Pontchartrain and areas west of the Lake.   The farther inland on the North Shore, the less the impacts.  Again, pay attention to the center line track as areas to the west will be on the weaker side while those near and to the east will feel greatest impacts.   I still see lots of shear north of Nate on the Satellite loops tonight and we still have the upper/mid level low over the eastern Gulf moving to the west.   How will that change the intensity & track of Nate?   Perhaps not at all.  I do know that the NHC forecast track error at 72 hours is over 150-200 miles.  This means Nate could end up as far east as Mobile or as far west as Lafayette.   Sometime Friday afternoon I’ll feel confident enough to start closing my shutters and preparing my yard.   I’ll issue a blog update then.  For now we are officially on a Hurricane Watch, which means, as David said tonight, hurricane force winds are POSSIBLE.    All 3 channels are giving you what NHC believes the most likely scenario.   Our VIPIR model has the center farther to the west, but not by much.   We need to take this seriously, but understand there is nothing that indicates Nate will become a major hurricane.   I will gas up my car, get some food and then decide Friday PM if I need to strengthen my home protection.  Updates begin tomorrow morning before 8 AM.  Stay Tuned!

3 comments:

Unknown said...

Thank you for your unique insights.

Concerned said...

Thank you for your unique perspective.

Faith Hope Love said...

Thank you Bob for the updates. I live in LaPlace just south of I-10. While I did not flood during Isaac, I did evacuate based on your warning to leave. Thank you. While I am not currently planning to evacuate, I would like to hear your opinion or details in regards to LaPlace and Lake Ponchartrain flooding again. I would like to hear what you think how this is similar to Isaac. Thank you for you help and service to the community.