Friday, October 6, 2017

Nate Reaches Gulf, Nearly a Hurricane...

As I await the 10 PM NHC update, there is not much new to tell you.  Nate has entered the extreme southern Gulf passing through the Yucatan Channel.  His forward speed remains fast at 22 mph,  which to me indicates it’s unlikely to make any sharp turns.  Motion has been more northerly and that is good for us.  Nate is about at 86 degrees longitude and I’d like to see him not get beyond 88 degrees west before making the turn.   Hopefully the new guidance from NHC either keeps the center line track as is (near Biloxi) or shifts it farther to the east away from us.   Satellite loops suggest T-Storms are trying to burst around the center, but they are having a difficult time.  There appears to be an upper high forming over Nate that should allow him to strengthen.  An upper high acts as an open chimney flue that allows the storm to ventilate the low level converging winds.  I will not be surprised to awake in the AM seeing a well-defined eye feature with Nate.   He could easily reach a Cat. 2 (100-110 mph) before landfall so it’ll be very important we remain west/left of the center line track.  Watching David on FOX 8 showed the latest recon report indicating  pressure is NOT falling.  That is good news.  Also, the wind probabilities have increased towards Mobile Bay while they decreased slightly here.  That could point to a shift in the track farther to the east?

 

OK, you already know the NHC updated 10 pm track.   Whew!  They have shifted the centerline track slightly back farther to the east to over Pascagoula.  That is HUGE for us since NHC (National Hurricane Center) says recon shows Nate to be very asymmetric…translation, lopsided with way more wind & rain on the east side and much less on the west side.  Unless Nate does something goofy overnight, the main impacts will be east of metro NOLA with the brunt of the storm heading towards Mobile & the Florida beaches.   Even the Gulfport & Biloxi areas should be spared the brunt of the storm surge although they will see much more than us in LA.   Again, that centerline track is so important.  Let’s hope this is a permanent trend.  David Bernard will be doing hourly updates thru 1 AM with FOX 8 going on with a live morning show at 4 AM.   I will update around 8 AM to let you know that I probably won’t close my shutters.  Stay tuned!

3 comments:

SpeedRacerjm1 said...

Thank you for this.

Darryl G said...

Thanks Bob for all your insight!

Concerned said...

I understand you are not allowing comments to be posted but since you MAY read them. Thank you very much for giving us your insight. Which you really don't have to my friend. I remember you came to my school when I was in 7th grade at St. Christopher. My mom always liked you. And she would tell me you were the last of the old school meteorologists. That the new ones, and this is a while back now, just read what what the national weather bureau puts out. Thanks again. God Bless.